**Key Concepts: Ch 1-16**,

New Los Alamos National Laboratory paper (

"the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6"

"Our estimate of the time from initial exposure to symptom onset is 4.2 days with a 95% confidence interval (CI for short below) between 3.5 and 5.1 days"

** 2/14 Day 23)** Quantitative
Data, Inference for Means, and the

View Example 1 from the class notes. Use the table to find the

Click here for another explaination of the Nearly Normal Condition.

A23:

FYI: Gosset's Original Student's T article

Fisher's Applications of Student's Distribution

Angry Customers Sue Starbucks for Failing to Fill Their Lattes

**2/12,13 B_Day 22)** **BIG Part V Test**

**A22: **

1) Relax.

**Tuesday 2/11 Day 21)** Review for Part V Test next class.

**A21:**

1) pg. 522 / 30 (show all steps). pg. 523-528 / (assume A/C OK) 21, 23, 34, 37, 38.

2) Study for the **BIG Part V Test next class!** (Days 5-21, reivew
notes, assignments, inference guide, and the flashcard list)

Remeber: **Conclusions for Hypothesis Tests** should be 2 sentences:

**1st** - *P-value is __high / low__ therefore we __fail to reject / reject__ the null hypothesis.*

**2nd** - *There __isn't / is __ evidence ___(...in context of alternative hypothesis)___.*

**Monday 2/10 Day 20)** Finish discussion about the
difference of two proportions. Finalize iInference guide for proportions.
Begin reviewing for Part 5 Test (Wednesday/Thursday).

**A20:**

1) complete the fill in the blanks handout D20.

2) Complete the baseball problem on page 2 of the class notes.

3) pg. 523-528 / 5, 11, 22, 32(part *a - * assume A/C OK).

4) **BIG Part 5 Test is block day**

FYI: Perfect Pitch Example for problem 22 and explanation UCSD, SciAmer.

** 2/07 Day 19)** **Quiz on Hypothesis
Testing (Chapters 20, 21).**

**A19: **(due Monday)

1) Read Ch. 22

2) pg. 519-522 / 8, 11, 18, 20, 24. (8d draw an entire normal model labeling 1,2,3 SDs,

18 and 20 see example in class notes, 11,20&24 assume A/Cs OK - don't write them out. Show A/C for 18c)

Enrichment - extension of problem 11 pets and pesticides - UC Davis investigates autism and pesticides. Link 1, Link 2

**2/5,6 B_Day 18)** Inference for the difference of two proportions, Ch.22.

**A18:
1**)
pg. 499-503 / 25, 28. (complete on page 1 of the class notes)

2) Prepare for Quiz next class on Days 13-17 (Chapters 20, 21).

3) Get a head start on A19 if you want.

**2/4 Day 17)** Explore interactions between
Type I &Type II errors, Power, Effect Size, and Sample Size. Notes

**A17:**

1) Finish reading Ch. 21

2) pg. 499-503 / 22, 24, 27 (also do 29 SHOW ALL STEPS if you didn't get a 10 on A16)

3) Begin studying for **Friday's quiz on Days 14-17 (Chapters
20, 21).**

4) Check out the websites and applets for more information on Type I and Type
II Errors.

http://www.intuitor.com/statistics/T1T2Errors.html

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/Power/Power.html

**2/3
Day 16)** Alpha Level. Errors
and hypothesis tests. Notes

**A16:**

1) Begin reading Ch. 21

2) pg. 499-503 / 3, 5, 20, 21.

3) pg. 479 / 32 (SHOW ALL STEPS - see the inference guide) (don't stop - assume representative).

**1/31 Day 15)** Continue
Testing Hypotheses About Proportions

**A15:** (due Monday)

1) pg. 476-479 / 2, 6, 10, 21, 25 (show all steps for 21 and 25 - see the inference guide)

[21 and 25 for Independ. A/C - although not SRS assume representative and proceed!]

2) finish reading
Ch.20.

**1/29,30 B_Day 14)** **Quiz Ch 19**.
Begin Ch. 20 - Testing Hypotheses About Porportions.

**A14:**

1) Begin reading Ch.20

2) Fill in the Inference Guide

3) pg. 476-479 / 1, 3, 7, 9, 12

**Conclusions for Hypothesis Tests** should be 2 sentences:

**1st** - *P-value is __high / low__ therefore we __fail to reject / reject__ the null hypothesis.*

**2nd** - *There __isn't / is __ evidence ___(...in context of alternative hypothesis)___.*

**1/28 Day 13)** Calculating
the n required for ME=? and ? Confidence Level. Notes

**A13: **

1) pg. 455-458 / 27, 30, 33. Just these 3, we will do #35 with A14.

2) Study for a **Quiz on Days 8-13 next class**, Block Day. (Study
Ch. 19, vocab, notes, assignments, notation, be able to show all steps when constructing a confidence interval, calculate sample size needed for a particular margin of error, etc.)

**1/27 Day 12) **Finish confidence intervals for categorical data. Learn proper
setup for inference problems.

**A12: **

1) pg. 455-458 / 6, 8, 13, 18(set up like the handout), 26.

2) Prepare for a quiz on Block Day. Know your notation.

FYI:

Two **non peer-reviewed** papers create confidence intervals for the R0 of 2019-nCoV:

1) We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (RR0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6 and 4.0)

2) The resulting mean of R estimates is 4.08, as expected, with SD=0.36 (95% CI 3.37~4.77).

**Friday 1/24 Day 11)** Notation
review with the memory game. Calculating critical values for various
levels of confidence. Certainty vs. precision. See
the 11D notes here.

**A11: **

1) Finish A10 and Read Ch. 19.

2) Start Assigment 12 if you have a busy start to next week.

**1/22,23 B_Day 10)** **Quiz on Chapter
18.** Learn
how to create a "*p*-trap" Otherwise
known as a confidence interval.

**A10:**

1) pg. 455-458 / 2, 3, 5, 17, 19. Hints

**Tuesday 1/21 Day 9)** Review for **Quiz on Chapter 18 next
class**

**A9**:

1) pg. 432-438 / 45, 54. Hints

2) Study for Ch. 18 quiz next class. Know your
vocabulary & problems
Days 4-8.

Be sure to memorize the Assumptions and Conditions for using a Normal Model as
the SDM for proportions and means. A hint for porportions:

"I ran 10 same size successful firms"

**Indep**., Radomdomization, 10%, **Sample Size**, Success/Failure.

Be able to calculate the mean and SD of SDM. Draw and label the SDM. Calculate how unusual something is (you do remember Ch.6 don't you?).

**1/17 Day 8)** Law of Diminishing Returns.
Standard Error.

Ch16-18 connections

**A8:**

1) Study for the small Quiz on Ch. 18 block day Wed, Thurs. Know your
vocabulary & problems
Days 4-8.

2) pg. 432-438 / 40, 42, 43 Hints - print and complete or use as needed.

** "I ran 10 same size successful firms"**

**1/15,16 B_Day 7) Part
IV Test **(Chapters 14-17).

**A7:**

1) complete Page 4 of
the Day 5 class notes, read Ch. 18, and study pg. 429.

2) Pg. 432-438 / 27, 28, 33, 37

**1/13 Day 5) **Investigate
Sampling Distribution of a Mean. /* Class 1st then Library */

Access the Day
5 Notes Pages 1, 2, 3 and Page 4 for help completing your handout.

Also review random
rectangle results to assist in drawing conclusions for pages 2 and 3.

(**CAUTION**: for the page 3 applet **use Interent Explorer **and you may need to update your Java Security Settings first:

1. Search "configure java"

2. Security Tab, edit Site List, add each home domain for the apps

3. Restart your browser.

**A6: ****Due Block Day:**

1) pg. 405-410 / 3, 12, 28,1, 2, 4, 20, 37, 40, 41, 42

2) Study for the Part IV Test (Chapters 14-17) Block Day (1/15,16).

**1/10 Day 4) **Sampling Distribution of a Proportion.

Class Notes.

**A4: **(due Monday)

1) pg. 432-438 / 8,15,16,26. Hints

2) Study for the Part IV Test next block day (Chapters 14-17)

3) Continue working on A6 due Block Day (1/15,16).

Roulette P(winning) 100 vs 1000 plays!

Red = 100 plays, Blue = 1000 plays. Green = break even.

As the number of plays increases the variability _____ and the gambler's chance of leaving without loosing ______ . The way you win at gambling is to be the house. The only rational way to enter a casino is with the mindset, "I am willing to lose $X to purchase entertainment."

**1/08,09 B_Day 3) **Review for **Part
IV Test **(Chapters 14-17) nex week.

Finish Chapter 17 Probability Models. Investigate how to win at gambling.

**A3: Due Friday 1/10**

1) complete Day 3 page 2 gambling investigation on the class handout.

2) complete Day 3 page 1 problems on a separate paper.

**A6: Due Block Day next week:** /* Start the **bold** problems*/

1) pg. 405-410 / **3, 12, 28**, 1, 2, 4, 20, 37, 40, 41, 42

2) Study for the Part IV Test (Chapters 14-17) Block Day (1/15,16).

**1/07 Day 2)** Learn to use your calculator for Geometric and Binomial probability models. Assumptions and conditions. Determine when we can approximate the Binomial probability model with the Normal model. Check out the binomial distribution applets: Binomial Distribution -Berkeley

**A1&2:** (click 18 for an example problem)

1) pg. 401-404 / 18, 20, 22, 31, 34. (you can use your calculator but you must show your work)

2) Finish reading chapter 17.

**Monday 1/06 Day 1)** Bernoulli trials. Geometric
and Binomial probability models.

** A1:**

1) Begin reading Chapter 17.

2) pg. 401-404 / 1, 2, 9, 11, 15, 17.

Permutations Combinations Review

Proof of the 10% Condition

It was a great 1st Semester. Final Exam Scores have been posted.

Please note, with the mode around 91% (assuming about 60% "5s" on the AP exam)

there will inevitably be many people earning just below and just above 90%.

Due Monday 1/6 Pg. 383-386 / 35, 25, 27, 29, 37, 36, 38. (Hints to help you get started)

**12/16-19
Final Exams. **Check the school website for the schedule.

**Friday 12/13 Day 63) ****Last day to turn in make-up work (abs. or inc.)**. Review for the 1st Semester Final Exam (Chapters1-16)

** A63:**

1) Complete the inclass Ch. 1-6 summary and mixer.

2)
Study for Final Exam.

**12/11,12 B_Day 62)** Probability Simulation
Lab. Present Game of Chance.

**A62:**

1) Due Monday 1/6 Pg. 383-386 / 35, 25, 27, 29, 37, 36, 38. (Hints to help you get started)

2) Review for the Final Exam.

**12/10 Day 61) Present Projects Groups 7, 3, 1, 6.** Review
for the Final Exam.

**A60: **

1) Finish designing your game of chance for 12/11,12. (see Day 57 Page 1 for details)

2) Study for Final Exam.

**12/09 Day 60) Present Projects Groups 2, 4, 5, 8.** Review
for the Final Exam.

**A60:
**1) Finish designing your game of chance for 12/11,12. (see Day 57 Page 1 for details)

2) Study for Final Exam.

**12/06 Day 59)** Come to class, then library study #2. Finish group projects (50% Test + 90% Quiz). Design your game of chance (It counts as 1/2 a quiz).

**A59: **

1) Work on your projects and presentations. Please note:

a)
No separate report. A few busy slides with data or written details are OK. You can just skip over them during your presentation. (for example: here is our raw data, of course a better way to look at it is.....)

b) 8 min max for your presentation

c) Save the file as Period#Group#_Last Names and share or email it to me @ ken_iams@fuhsd.org (for example **6P8G_Iams_DellaSantina**)

**hint:** go throught the key concpets lists to make sure you are commenting on all important concepts and using proper vocabulary.

2) Finish designing your game of chance for 12/11,12. (see Day 57 Page 1 for details)

**12/04,5 B_Day 58)** **Quiz Ch 14-15.** Greedy Pig rematch. Discuss continuous random variables.

**A58: **

1) Read Ch. 16

2) Due Monday 1/6 Pg. 383-386 / 35, 25, 27, 29, 37, 36, 38. (Hints to help you get started) (See class example and draw a Normal Model for 37 and 38)

3) Due 12/11,12 - Design your own game of chance (counts as 1/2 a quiz! see Day 57 page 1 for details)

4) Work on your projects and presentations. Please note that your presentation
is your writeup.

Enrichment:

Credit Default Swaps - 60 Minutes

Read about attempts
to claw back bonuses based on illusory models.

More from Reuters ,
the Economist.

**12/03 Day 57)** Learn the Pythagorean Theorem of Statistics. Continuous random variables.

**A57:**

1) Study for **Quiz next class (Wed./Thurs.) on Days 50-55 Chapters 14 & 15.** See the updated Key Concept List.

2) Work on your projects and presentations. Please note that your presentation
is your writeup.

3) Due 12/11,12 - Design your own game of chance (counts as 1/2 a quiz!)

4)
Get a head start on A58 (due Friday12/14)

FYI: The importance of Independence:

The Camp Fire

**12/02 Day 56)** Learn about
random variables, probability models, and expected value.

Reference the partially
completed
Key if
you
need
help.

Calculator Shortcut for mean and standard deviation of a random variable:

L1 = outcomes L2 = probabilities (frequencies) then
1VarStats L1,L2

**A56:
** 1) complete the examples 2 and 3 on the class notes (Skip 4 and page 4 problems 1 and 2)

2) Pg. 383-386 / 1, 3, 5, 16, 21 (show all steps on problem 1, calculator OK on the rest, make a tree diagram for 21).

3) Study for

FYI: Z-scores in the weather forecast! (from 2015)

INTERNAL ENSEMBLE DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THERE IS VERY COLD AIR IN

THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM MODEL

GUIDANCE INDICATES 500MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -25C TO -30C WHICH IS AROUND

**11/26,27 B_****Day 55)** Reversing the conditioning,
Screening Tests, Work on projects.

**A55: **

1) Complete page 2: Cancer and AIDS problems

2) Pg. 364-365 / 38, 40, 41, 46.

3) Continue to work on your projects.

** 11/25 Day 54) **tree diagrams.

**A54: **

1) Pg. 361-365 / 1(VD),21(VD),30(VD),31,33(Tree),35.

Hint: an "or" or "either" question does include the intersection
(both) - General
Addition Rule

2) Continue to work on your project and read Ch.15.

**11/22 Day 53) **Time to work on Project.

**A53: **

1) Continue to work on your project and read Ch.15.

**11/20,21 B_Day 52) **** Quiz Chapter 14** Then Discover the General Addition
Rule and conditional probability leading to General Multiplication Rule.

**A52:**

1) 1) Pg. 361-365 / Using Venn Diagrams when possible 2,4,5,6,10,14,15,19. (Make Venn Diagrams for 2,4,19)

2) Continue to work on your project and read Ch.15.

**11/19 Day 51)** Review LLN, Law of Averages, Addition and Multiplication Rules.

Chapter 14 Quiz next class.

**A51:**

Pg. 333-335 Review the Step-By-Step Example (pay attention to Assumptions, Conditions,
and "At Least")

1) Suppose that 40% of cars in your area are

Manufactured in Japan, 30% in the US, 10% in Germany,

and 20% in other countries. Find some probabilities:

a) A car selected at random is not US-made.

b) A car selected at random is made in Japan or Germany.

c) You see two cars in a row from Japan.

d) None of three cars came from Germany.

e) At least one of three cars is US-made.

f) The first Japanese car is the fourth one you see.

2) Pg. 338-341 / 9,10,31,32,33,44.

3) Read Chapter 14 - Small Quiz Block Day (Chapter 14).

**Monday 11/18 Day 50)** Chapter 14 From Randomness
to Probability continued.

**A50: **(continue on A49)

1) Continue Reading Ch. 14 and review the Step By Step example.

2) pg. 338-341 / 19,21,23,25,27,35,36 (probability answers in decimals not %s)

3) Work on your Group Project Proposal *(due next class).*

4) Small Chapter 14 Quiz on Block Day.

FYI: Statistics summarizes experience in a way that helps people make decisions.

**11/15 Day 49)** Chapter 14 From Randomness
to Probability

**A49:** (Due 11/18)

*(due Monday 11/18)
1) Continue Reading Ch. 14 and review the Step By Step example.
2) pg. 338-341 / 3,4,5,6,7
3) Work on your Group Project Proposal (due 11/19).
*

**11/13,14 B_Day 48)** **Take the Part
III Test** (Days 37-47 Chapters 11-13)

Group Project (Survey, Study, or Experiment)

**A48:** *
*1) Start Reading Ch. 14 and review the Step By Step example.

2) Work on your Group Project Proposal (due 11/19).

3) Get a head start on A49. pg. 338-341 / 3,4,5,6,7 (due Monday 11/18)

FYI: DOE vs OFAT and Design of Experiment Lecture

**Tuesday 11/12 Day 47)** **Review for test block day.** Peer Review Backhoes & Forklifts using the provided rubric. Work on Group Project (Survey,
Study, or Experiment)
Group Proposal is due block day 11/20,21. Groups are your seat groups.

**A47:**

1) Complete the Part 3 Vocabulary Review Crossword Puzzle
(due block day) (no space between two word answers)

2)
Study for the Part 3 Test block day (Days 36-47 Ch 11-13)

1) Pg. 317-322 / 1,2,3,4,16,17,18,19 (simulation w/10 trials each w/5 games), 22,25,31,33.
(due next class) (you can skip simulation problem if you got a 10 on A37 & A38)

2)
Study for the Part 3 Test block day (Days 37-47 Chapters 11-13)

FYI: Problem 22 - Dangers of WiFi and Cell Phone Radiation Experiment: Pro Con

**Friday 11/08 Day 46)** Experimental Design Ethics.** Review for test block day next week.**

**A46:**

1) **due Tuesday** - Complete the Investigative Task – Backhoes & Forklifts

2) Study for the Part 3 (Ch.11,12,13) Test 11/14,15. (Study Days 36-47 Chapters 11-13)

3) **due Block Day 11/14,15:**

3a) Complete the Part 3 Vocabulary Review Crossword Puzzle
(due block day) (no space between two word answers)

3b) Pg. 317-322 / 1,2,3,4,16,17,18,19 (simulation w/10 trials each w/5 games), 22,25,31,33. (you can skip simulation problem if you got a 10 on A37 & A38)

FYI - Other interesting links:

The Tuskegee Experiment: Summary, Government Apology, CDC, Tuskegee
Univ., Tuskegee
Univ., Photos **
**a) When did it begin and what disease was the Tuskegee
experiment tying to learn more about?

b) What aspects of experimental design were employed in the Tuskegee experiment?

c) What aspects were omitted?

d) When did the Tuskegee experiment become unethical?

e) When and why was it ended?

f) How did Tuskegee change research practices?

More interesting links:

Nonconsensual Medical Experiments on Human Beings

The Ethics of Placebo Controlled Trials

Ethical, Scientific, and Regulatory Perspectives Regarding the Use of Placebos in Cancer Clinical Trials

Parkinson’s Study – Active Placebo, holes drilled in head.

**11/06,07 B_Day 45)** More Experimental design: matching, blinding, placebo, etc. Polio trials - Dr. Jonas Salk.

**A45:** (Review Ch.11-12 Quiz)

1) Pg. 312-316 / 36,38,44 (Sketch the experimental design for each question),

2) Work on the Investigative Task – Backhoes & Forklifts (due Tuesday).

3) Begin studying for next block day’s Part 3 (Ch.11,12,13) Test 11/13,14.

*FYI: Stats in the news *

Also: Ribavirin scandal inappropriate treatment assignment from the class video.

Space Weather Health Alerts

**11/05 Day 44)** Blocking, placebo, blinding.

**A44:**

1) Finish Reading Chapter 13. Finish today's notes as well as STEM Stats notes (Day 42).

2) Pg. 312-316 / 34,35,11,16,17,18.

3) Begin to think about how you will complete the Investigative Task - Backhoes & Forklifts
(due Tuesday 11/12)

4) Part 3 (Ch.11,12,13) Test 11/13,14.

**Monday 11/04 Day 43)** **Quiz Ch. 11 & 12**

**A43: **Due Tuesday 11/05.

1) Read Ch. 13 (especially the sample problem) Study the vocabulary and
concepts from Friday's notes. Complete Friday's D42 notes. Complete today's D43 notes.

2) Pg. 312-315 / 7,8,9,10,12,29,32,33 (33b - Sketch the experimental design).

**11/01 Day 42) **Compare Sampling, Observational
Study, and Experiment.

**A42:**

1) Prepare for **quiz Monday on Days 36-41 (Chapters 11 & 12)**.
Know your
vocab and make sure you know how to conduct a simulation.

2) Get a head start on A43 if you want.

**10/30,31 B_Day 41)** Review response bias (induced
bias due to question wording or interviewer influence). More Sampling Strategies - explained with Random Rectangles.

Enter your data here View the new data here Period 1, Period 2, Period 3, Period 4, Period 5

**A41:**

1) Prepare for quiz Monday on Days 36-41 (Chapters 11 & 12).
Know your
vocab and make sure you know how to conduct a simulation (Who's your buddy?, Biases I hope to . . .).

2) Pg. 288-291 / 19,27,32,35.

**10/****29**** Day 40)** What sample size? Sampling Strategies.

**A40:**Complete the class notes.

1) Finish Random Rectangles A39 pg. 2. (If you were absent use this data for 10 Sample Random)

2) at the bottom of A39 pg. 2 also answer: How would the distribution of size 10 random samples of 1000 Random Rectangles compare to the distribution you created in class for the size 10 radom samples of 100 Random Rectangles?

2)
Read Chapter 12 and study your notes in preparation for Monday's quiz (Ch.
11 & 12)

3) Answer the questions on page 2 of the notes.

4)
Pg. 288-291 / 7,8,10,17.

FYI: Sampling UC Berkeley Diversity

**10/28 Day 39)** Begin study design - Sample
Surveys and Bias.

**A39:**

1) Random Rectangles Continued - complete questions 1,2,3,7 on page 2 of the notes.

using your class Random Rectangle data. Period 1, Period 2, Period 3, Period 4, Period 5

2) Pg. 288-291 / 20,22,23,25,26.

**10/25 Day 38)** Random Rectangles, Simulation using randint( ), Random number wrap-up.

Input your Random Rectangles answers into the GoogleForm **using your FUHSD account**:

**A38:** (due Monday)

1) Pg. 266-267 / Simulations (use your calculator for the random numbers):
27
(do
at
least
20
trials),
28 & 34 (do at least 10 trials) (Hint for #34 use Randint(1,6,2) for rolling two dice).

2) Finish reading chapter 11.

FYI: Random number generators. Random numbers with your
calculator. True random vs. pseudorandom numbers Also Using radioactive material to generate random numbers.

**10/23,24 B_Day 37) **Introduction to Randomness.

**A37:**

1) Finish the day 37 notes (both sides) (read chapter 11 for assistance)

3) Pg. 265-266 / 1, 2, 4, 11, 13, 15, 19, 20, 25 (See Pg. A-73
Appendix G for a list of random numbers to use with the simulations for 19, 20,
25 also be sure to define SCOTR for each!)

FYI: Check out www.random.org for more info
about random numbers.

**10/22 Day 36)** Discover other uses
of re-expression.

**A36: **

1) Complete A33 handout side one and side two

FYI: Things we skipped:

x) Read pages 89-91.

x) Pg. 102-103 / 38, 37, 39, 41, 42.

For Fun: See if you can see the Happy
Cat in the stereogram. More here.

**10/21 Day 35)** **60% Test
on ****Regression Wisdom & Re-expression. (Days
26-34)**

**A35: **

1) None.

**Friday 10/18****Day 34)** Re-expression wrap up. Review
for Monday's Part 2 Test on Regression Wisdom and Re-expression. (Primarily
Days 26-34)**
A34: (due Monday)
**1)
Review for Monday's Test - Regression Wisdom & Re-expression.
(Days 26-34)

2) Review Chapters 9, 10 of your book.

3) Pg. 243-244 / 29, 30.

4) Pg. 249-252 / 26, 27, 40.

FYI: Video - Correlation matrix in time series analysis (moving average vs lag at 2min)

Corresponding paper referenced in the video above.

**10/16,17 B_Day 33)** Part 2 of, Is Pluto a planet?

**A33: **

Friday you will be picking your new seat - so think about
where you want to be and who you want to sit next to.

1) Pg. 242-243 / 20(position=x),21,22.

sketch the original scatter plot, re-express to find an appropriate model (write the equation of the model, comment on the residual plot, comment on R^2). Also for 20, 21 calculate the residual value.

FYI: The
Pluto Files and New Horizons probe Pluto Photos & Analysis 1 and 2.

Universal Understanding Through Unit Conversions

**10/15 Day 32) **Finish determining the association between shutter speed and aperture. Investigate log-log re-expression. Is Pluto a planet?

1) Complete the Day 31 Investigation parts c) and d)

2) (continue work on A31) Pg. 242-243 / 17(year=x), 18(dist.=x), 19(position=x)

sketch the original scatter plot, re-express to find an appropriate model (write the equation of the model, comment on the residual plot, comment on R^2). Also for 19b calculate the residual value.

FYI: What type of outlier is the market performance on 2/5/2018 and what re-expresion might you consider using?

** 10/11 Day 31)** Review Components necessary
for succeessful regression problem answers. More on re-expression and the Ladder
of Powers.

TI89 Green Diamond, 7 = LOG

1) Pg. 239-243 / 14, 15.

2) Complete the Day 31 Investigation parts a) and b)

Investigate the photographic effects of the association with the SimCam.

**10/09,10 B_Day 30) **How to deal with curved
data - Try wacking it with a LOG!

Re-expression with the Ladder
of Powers

TI89 Green Diamond, 7 = LOG

**A30:** (due Friday)

1) Read Ch. 10

2) Pg. 239-240 / 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

3) Complete the investigation into the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. (graded
separately)

FYI: A2T Review Solving exponential and log equations, .... What an outlier looks like

**10/08 Day 29)** What can go wrong with regression
continued - Means (or other summaries) rather than actual data. Is there an association between the number of
amalgam fillings (approximately 50% mercury) a person has and the amount of mercury in their stool?

**A29: **

1) Read and know Chapter 9.

2) complete the Investigative Task - Long Jump.

3) complete the algebra graphs on page 2 of the handout.

4) Continue working on the investigation into the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. (Due Fri. and graded
separately)

FYI: David Quig, PhD - IAOMT presentation: mercury derived from amalgam fillings

(minutes 8:55 - 20:00 pertain to the investigation we did in class.)

Comment on the Detrending of the Buffet
Indicator in this article.

**10/07 Day 28)** Pop Quiz! Then what can go wrong with regression
continued - Changes in pattern.

**A28: **

1) Complete the graduating class activity (notice how similar it is to Heat Wave index below).

2) Pg. 214-221 / 1, 29, 6, 30. (due Tuesday)

3) due Friday: Complete the investigation into the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. (graded
separately)

FL Election Results (Excel
97-03) (Excel 2007) (PDF)

View the infamous Butterfly Ballot.

FYI: Climate Change, you now have tools to help critically evaluate all sides of the issue.

https://data.globalchange.gov/indicator?current=1,

https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/us-heat-waves,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tul07hx8V8w Could the sun be the major contributor?

**10/04 Day 27)** What can go wrong with regression.
Learn how leverage and residual produce three flavors of outliers.

**A27:**

1) Pg. 214-221 / 11, 13, 14, 25, 27, 15.

2) mix your own flavor of outlier with the Correlation
Regression Demo (be sure to click on the mean-mean line and regression line).

3) What type of outlier is the United States in the Graph of Gun Deaths below?

**"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."**

**10/02,03 B_Day 26)** **60% Test
on Correlation and Regression Ch. 7&8** (Days
18-25)

**A26:**

1) complete the handout activity - The
Wayward Point (due Friday)

Have the calculator do it all. Draw the regression line for each graph with the
calculator then by hand. When you do, the residuals are automatically calculated
and saved. You can move them to a "normal" list by storing them in
L3: 2nd STAT RESID STO-> L3. Now in addition to reading off the size of the
residual, you can also do 1-Var Stats to find SD of the residuals.

**10/01 Day 25)** Review appropriateness vs.
success of the regression model. Get a preview to an end of year topic of the role of correlation in portfolio
optimization (investing). Review for **Test next
class** on Part 2 Chapters 7&8 (except Straghtening Scatterplots
p. 158-160) (Days 18-25)

**A25: **(continue on A24)

1) pg. 245-250 / 24, 29, 30, 31

3) Study for the **60% Test next class**. It will cover Days 18-25. Look over your
notes,
assignments, Key Concepts list, and Ch.7-8 of your text (except Straghtening
Scatterplots
p. 158-160)

__ The deadline to register (and pay) for all AP exams they plan to take in May 2020__!

is this Friday, October 4th

Join Instructions and Codes (below) for College Board AP Stats Sign Ups:

1P: JEDRXR, 2P:
YEJD3Q, 3P: AYEWAA, 4P: Q7N3QQ, 5P: XVE7Y4

**9/30 Day 24) **check for understanding** Quiz on Ch. 7 **(except Straghtening
Scatterplots p. 158-160)** and Ch. 8
A24:**

1) pg. 194 / 27 pg. 245-250 / 1, 8, 9,

2) Begin to prepare for

**9/27 Day 23)** Clarify the role of R^2. Check
out this R^2 Animation (I
made this to animate the information in the blue box on page 183 of our book).
Discuss the success of the model vs. the appropriateness of the model. Learn
to utilize residual plots. Learn to do it on your calculator.** Finish
the class notes here
**

A23:

1) Complete the detailed problem on page 2 of your class notes. (see Step-by Step Example p.185+ in your book)

2) Study for a check for understanding

3) Check out the correlation, regression, residual plot

**9/25,26 B_Day 22) **How to write the equation
for the line of best fit and other interesting discoveries from doing a big
proof.

2) Begin to prepar for quiz on Monday. It will cover Days 18-23. Look over your notes, assignments, and study Ch. 7 & 8 (except Straghtening Scatterplots p. 158-160)

FYI: A Brief History of Linear Regression

** 9/24 Day 21) **How can we use the correlation
coefficient to estimate the

2) Here is the McDonald's data for example 6: Excel 97-2003 Excel 2007

Look at Appendix B in the back of your book (starting on page A-3) for Excel Instructions

(Insert tab, Scatterplot) (Formulas tab, More Functions, Statistical)

If you want to check out the Nutritional Facts for the entire McDonalds menu click here.

FYI: Causation? Screen time might boost depression, suicide behaviors in teens .

**09/23 Day 20)** Does correlation imply causation?

**A20:**

1) pg. 164-170 / 38, 13, 20, 25, 23, 24, 29 (in that order)

2) Read Ch. 7 pg. 146-158.

FYI: Here are some of the links discussed in class:

Spurious Correlations

Despite our guest lecturer who insisted that Cancer
Causes Smoking, we now know

that it is smoking
that causes cancer.

Other links:

Cause and Effect

More
on Smoking and Cancer

**09/21 Day 19) **Discover a numerical summary
for the strength of the association between two quantitative variables (the
spread of points about the form). Be able to calculate correlation coefficients
on your calculator.

**A19:**

1) Complete the problems on the class notes (including pg. 164-168 / 6, 11, 35,
33, 34).

2) Practice the "Correlated Crazies" games:

Four Square Multiple Choice _ Plot your own points

** 09/18,19 B_Day 18) Big Test on
everything so far this year, Ch.1-6.** Begin to explore relationships between
two quantitative variables.

2) complete the class notes

3) complete the problems on both sides of the class notes. (including pg.164-165 / 1,3,5,7)

**09/17 Day 17)** Review
for **Big Test next class!**

**A17: **(continue work on A16)

1) pg. 136-141 / 5, 8 (draw the entire normal model), 14, 25, 27

2) Review for Big Test next class. Review your class notes and assignments from
Days 1-16, the Key Concepts list, and Chapters 1-6 of your book. Chapter 1-6 summary page

**Monday 09/16
Day 16) Small Ch. 6 check for understanding quiz. **

Review for Block Day's Test.

**A16:**

1) pg. 135-143 / 10, 20, 33, 36, 38.

3) Begin reviewing for next Block Day's Big Test. Review your class notes
and assignments from Days 1-16, Chapters 1-6 of your book, as well as the
Key Concepts.

**09/13 Day 15)** Normal Probability Plot. Drawing Normal Models and the Empirical Rule.

**A15:**

1) pg. 131-133 / 25, 26 (25,26 draw the entire model), 31, 32, 44 (draw individual curves and show z score calculations).

2) Very small (10 point) Quiz on Chapter 6 on Monday. (a check up before the test)

3)
Begin preparing for 1st BIG TEST next Block Day. Ch.
1-6 (review Key Concepts)

FYI: In 1733 Abraham de Moivre, drawing on the work of Jacob and Nicolaus Bernoulli, calculus, and the underlying structure of Pascal's Triangle, demonstrated how a set of random drawings would distribute themselves around their average value. De Moivre's distribution is know today as a normal curve. It makes it possible to evaluate the probability that a given number of observations will fall within some specified bound around a true ratio.

**09/13 Day 15)** Normal Probability Plot. Drawing Normal Models and the Empirical Rule.

**A15:**

1) pg. 131-133 / 25, 26, 31, 32, 44.

2) Begin preparing for 1st big test next Block Day. Ch.
1-6

FYI: In 1733 Abraham de Moivre, drawing on the work of Jacob and Nicolaus Bernoulli, calculus, and the underlying structure of Pascal's Triangle, demonstrated how a set of random drawings would distribute themselves around their average value. De Moivre's distribution is know today as a normal curve. It makes it possible to evaluate the probability that a given number of observations will fall within some specified bound around a true ratio.

**09/****11****,1****2**** B_Day 14)** Journey
to **Mathmagic Land** to discover
the power of the Normal Model. Know the cereal example pages 121-123.

**A14:**

1) Read pages 116-123.**
**2) p.129-133 / 7, 9,
10, 38, 40, 45 (draw Normal curves for each part of 38,40,45)

Remember N(100, 16) means the mean = 100 and standard deviation = 16 for your z-score calculations.

3) Begin preparing for 1st big test next Block Day. Ch. 1-6

**09/1****0****
Day 13)** Measuring with Standard Deviations. Z-score practice. Review last quiz.

1) p.129-130 / 3,6,11,12,16,18,22.

2) Read pages 104-111.

**09/****10**** Day 1****2**** )** You can compare !

If you use the standard deviation as a ruler.

TI89 Users:

2) Read pages 104-111.

FYI: Check out the official decathlon scoring tables and the theory behind them.

**Friday 09/06 Day 11)** **Quiz Chapters 4 and 5**

** TI89 Users: **When manipulating lists (ex L1-12 STO L2) do it outside the list editor.

A11: Due Monday

**09/04,05 B_Day 10)** Calculators are for
calculating aren't they? Learn to find all or our summary
statistics with the calculator!
Review for Block Day's Quiz (Primarily on Chapters 4 and 5).

**A10: **

*Special Notice for newer TI84 users: If your 1-Var Stats input asks for Frequency and you want it to be 1. Then just hit clear and enter. *

1) complete the problems on the class
notes using your calculator where appropriate.

2) pages 75-78 / 48,50 (just write a few sentences) pages 95-100 / #7, 28, 30.

3) check out the relationship between median and mean for various distributions
with this applet 1

4) **Review for Friday's Quiz**. Study your class notes (concepts/vocab), assignments,
and review Chapters 4 and 5 of our book (you can ignore Re-expressing Data pgs
89-91). The quiz will focus primarily on displaying quantitative data and describing
distributions numerically but everything covered so far is fair game.

5) Get a head start on Friday's assignment - Decathlon Investigation handout (both sides).

FYI: Advantages of the mean deviation and answer to yesterday's proof challenge.

**09/****0****3**** Day 9)** Learn the limitations
of IQR as a measure of spread and investigate a measure of spread to complement the mean. Decide when to use which measure of center and spread. Class investigation

**A9:**

1) Finish reading Chapters 4 and 5 (you can skip Re-expressing data 89-91 for
now)

2) Complete the problems on pg. 3 (1-4) and pg. 4 (problem 5 part 7 only - calculate the standard deviation by hand for the Mooseburger data) of
class
notes.

3) **Review for Friday's Quiz**. Study your class notes (concepts/vocab), assignments,
and review Chapters 4 and 5 of our book (you can ignore Re-expressing Data pgs
89-91). The quiz will focus primarily on displaying quantitative data and describing
distributions numerically but everything covered so far is fair game.

For those interested: Why divide by n-1

Challenge: Use calculus to prove that the mean is the minimum for the sum of the squared deviations from the mean.

**08/3****0**** Day 8)** Figure out how to describe the distribution of quantitative
data numerically.

Be able to calculate 5-number
summaries and create boxplots.

Also read pages 80-82 for assistance with Boxplots.

**Assignment 8: (on separate paper, no graphing calculator - I want to
see work)
**1) Complete the problems on pages 3 and 4 of the class notes.

Note: for page 4 #5 (i) Just write 1 short sentence for each NOT a paragraph!

2) Begin to prepare for next Friday's "real" quiz. Study Ch. 4-5, your assignments, and notes.

**08/2****8****,****29**** B_Day 7)** What can a time plot tell you
that a histogram cannot? Investigate the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

**Assignment 7: **(due Friday)

1) Think of and list 3 time series that exhibit seasonal variation. Be sure to
describe the cause (or potential cause) of the seasonal variation.

2) Complete the pennie problem on the
Day 7 handout.

3) Pg. 72-76 / 6, 8, 10, 42, Pg. 101-102 / 36

FYI: El Nino video, 22 years of sea surface temperatures.

** 08/27
Day 6) **Conitinue to investigate ways of displaying quantitative
data. The nuances of creating stem-and-leaf displays. Histograms with
the calculator and the importance of proper bar width. Create histograms
from frequency tables.

2) Finish the page 1 of the class notes and complete the histograms on page 2.

2) Pg. 72-75 / 5, 7, 9, 32 (Hint: after entering the data into L1 you may want to try out the sort feature to make creating the stem-and-leaf display easier).

TI89 bin width hint: range divided by number of bars (# of observations / 5)

**08/2****6**** Day 5)** Quiz on Part I Chapters 1,2,3. Then on to displaying
quantitative data.

Begin to learn your calculator's statistical capabilities.

**Assignment 5: **

1) Read pages 44-48 of Chapter 4.

2) Complete the problems on both sides of the class handout. (See your book p.14-15,
p.46, Appendix B, the class notes, and the Resources section of the class website
for calculator instructions.) 89 Stats App Download Instructions

3) Bring your graphing calculator to class.

**08/****2****3**** Day 4) **Review segmented bar charts to determine independence/association of two categorical variables, evaluate the Investigative Task, explore Simpson's Paradox,
and review for quiz next class.

**Assignment 4: **

1) Read you book chapters 1-3.

2) Review the Think, Show, Tell format in the Step-By-Step Example pg. 31-32.

3) Do pg. 37-43 / problems 15, 16, 22, 36, 39.

4) Answer the following question: Two companies classify their employees as
either labor or management. Company A's laborers have a higher average salary
than company B's, as do company A's managers. But overall company B pays a
higher average salary. How can that be? And which is the better way to compare
earning potential at the two companies.

5) **Study for Monday's quiz on Chapters 1-3**. A) study your class
notes and vocabulary
B) review your assignments

FYI: Check out the area
principal in the 2012 election results.

**08/21-22 B_Day 3)** Displaying and Describing
Categorical Data, Take a trip on the Titanic. Contingency and Conditional
Distribution, Independence.

**Assignment 3:**

1) Read Ch. 1-3 of your book in preparation for next Monday’s
quiz.

2) Finish the class notes (including the problem on the bottom of page 2)

3) Assignment 3 handout (Smoking and Education) (see Ch. 3 example problems for hints)

4) If needed finish the Investigative Task - People killed by police (graded separately)

*hint: Use the concepts discussed in the Titanic Investigation.
On separate paper, about two paragraphs and a graph, no more than one page. For example 1st paragraph discuss the "W's". 2nd paragraph discuss what data you used and how you used it to make your conclusion. *

FYI:

also Diversity in Tech

**08/****20**** Day 2)** Get a taste of statistics being utilized in a
real world setting. Discuss AP Test expectations. Learn to describe data
in its context. Investigate types of variables. Get books.

**Assignment 2:**

1) Bring your calculator to class tomorrow. Let me know if you don't have one.

2) Complete the problems on the class handout.

3) Read Ch.1 and Ch.2.

FYI: Target Pregnancy Predictions article

Predictive Analytics overview, interview with Eric Siegel

Database Administrator Career Option

**08/****19**** Day 1)** Why AP Statistics? What to expect from
the course and Mr. Iams.

**Assignment 1:**

1) Complete the questions on the class handout. Click Course Information
at the left for the Green Sheet. Here is the link for the Official
AP Statistics Course Description (2.4MB PDF file).