Enrichment: What story does the data tell?

**COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments against Mandates at Universities**

**Key Concepts:** **Ch.1-15** **Ch. 16-22**

**05/23,24 Day 33)** **Facinating Discoveries with Linear Regression t-tests.**

**FYI:** (resources used in the class videos)

Universal Understanding Through Unit Conversions

Edwin Hubble's original paper and data

(Start 5:00 - Stop 8:52) Edwin Hubble, the Expanding Universe, Hubble's Law.

(Start 3:00 - Stop 5:00) Sky at Night - Quasars, Redshifts and Controversy - May 1988

Red Shift or Red Herring? (Primary Redshift Perspective)

Modern calculations for the age of the universe (notice the assumptions changing)

(Start 11:40 - Stop 20:16) Princeton Professor Martin Gilens presentation at MIT. Also his

paper: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens and a Rebuttal to the Paper

**5/16,17 Day 41)** Investigation - Modern Portfolio
Theory

**41A: **

1) Work on your final project. Make sure you are complying with all requirements
and deadlines outlined on the handout.

FYI - from class: Investigation - Modern Portfolio
Theory

Asset
Allocation Factors, What
is Asset Allocation

Portfolio
Optimization a Primer, Efficient
Frontier, Two
Asset Portfolio

Risk
Level 15 part 1, Risk
Level 15 part 2, Distribution
of Returns Over Time.

Markowitz
Interview

**5/04,****05 Day 38)** AP Exam May 4th! Introduce final project.

**38A: **None

**AP Test Resources: **Last
Minute AP Exam Review

Historical
FR Questions Table
of Past FR Topic
of Past FR

**5/02,03 Day 37)** Review for AP Exam. FR strategies question #6.

**37A:**

**A)** Complete both sides of the handout by reading the Last
Minute AP Exam Review

**B) **Complete 37D Edpuzzle Investigative Task.

**C) **Complete 38D Edpuzzle Top 10 Tips for AP Exam.

D) Prepare for the AP Exam May 4th!

**5/01 Monday Day 36M)** Review for AP Exam. FR strategies.

**36M:**

**A)** Complete both sides of the handout Prep Book Topic Review - read the pdf in Schoology

**B)** Complete Edpuzzle 36D AP Classroom Review Session 6 Free Response.

**4/27,28 Day 35)** ** Inference Test Ch. 18-27 with focus on 26, 27**

**35A:**

**A) **Complete the Final Exam Questions in AP Classroom (Due 4/30)

B) Get a head start on 36M and/or 37A
if you have finished the final exam.

**4/25,26 Day 34)** AP Exam Test taking strategies - Multiple Choice & Free Response.

Review for **Th/Fri Test on Ch. 18-27** with focus on 26, 27

**34A: **

**A)** Finish the Inference Flow Chart including Assumptions and Conditions.

**B)** pg. 672-682 / 18, 20, 23. (18 - show all steps including A/C, 20&23 assume A/C OK)

C) Prepare for Inference Test Ch. 18-27 with focus on 26, 27 this Th/Fri.

D) Continue working on the Final Exam Questions in AP Classroom. (Suggestion: focus on Units 6,7,**8,9** to prepare for Test on Ch.18-27.)

** 4/24 Monday Day 33M)** Review of multiple inference
procedures in preparation for Test Ch. 18-27 with focus on 26, 27 this Th/Fri.

**33M:**

**A) **Check for understanding - Identify the appropriate inference procedure (upload if absent)

**B)** Make corrections to 32A_B Book problems (using the key in 33M folder)

C) Prepare for Inference Test Ch. 18-27 with focus on 26, 27 this Th/Fri.

D) Continue working on the Final Exam Questions in AP Classroom. (Suggestion: focus on Units 6,7,**8,9** to prepare for Test on Ch.18-27.)

Enrichment: **Practice determining the correct inference procedure! **

**4/13,14 Day 32)** Inference for Regression

**32A:**

**A) **Submit the completed class notes (pages 1 and 2)

**B) **pg. 672-682 / 2 (2a is slope), 8, 13(show A/C and all steps), 15.

/* if you get stuck on #2 compare to the answers for #1 in the back of the book. */

C) Read Chapter 27 and Work on the Final Exam Questions in AP Classroom.

**4/11,12 Day 31)** Correlation and Regression
Review. Lead in to Inference for Regresseion.

**31A:** Assignment 31

**A) **Complete the Edpuzzle and Inference Guide Regression columns 1 and 2

**B)** Complete the Correlation Regression Review (TI
Calculator Tips Here)

(keep data in L1 and L2 - don't
delete)

C) Work on the Final Exam Questions in AP Classroom.

**4/10 Day 31M) Chi-Square Quiz**

**31M:**

**A)** Work on the Final Exam Questions in AP Classroom.

**4/06,07 Day 30)** More practice working with the three types of chi-square test.

**30A:**

**A) **Complete and submit page 2 of 30D class notes.

**B)** pg. 642-648 / 23, 24 (problem 23 think back to what we did at the beginning of the year. We tested for independence with segmented bar charts then with P(A) = P(A|B). Now the independence X2 test provides "wiggle room" to accommodate natural sampling variability.)

**C) **Complete the Edpuzzle.

D) Finish reading Chapter 26 and prepare for Chi-Square quiz Monday..

**4/04,05 Day 29)**Discover another chi-square test, homogeneity (and the associated TI shortcut - see below). Discover the 3rd chi-square test, independence (see
class notes here). Complete the chi-square inference guide here.

Homogeneity - many groups asked 1 question (question = variable, answers = categories)

Independence - one group asked 2 questions.

**29A:**

**A)** Complete the Edpuzzle

**B)** Complete and submit the class notes.

**C) **pg. 642-648 / 28, 33, 35 (for all problems - show A/C, make a table showing observed and expected then use matrix and calculator shortcut to find the Chi-Squared value and p-value).

**4/03 Day 28M)** Chi-square Goodness of Fit continued, learn calculator short cut. Chi-square Inference Guide. Learn the importance of and how to calculate standardized residuals.

**28M:**

**A)** Complete the Edpuzzle

**B)** pg. 642-648 / 9b,c (b assume A/Cs OK and use X2GOF to calculate the answer, for part c compare with the answer for 9a, 10 (Show all steps but use X2GOF instead of making a table)

C) Read Ch.26 p.618-625.

**3/30,31 Day 27)** Discover a test for an entire
distribution rather than just one proportion.

**27A: **

**A)** Complete and submit class notes pages 1-4.

**B)** pg. 642-648 / 6, 8, 9a. (for 8 and 9a make the table like we did in class for skittles,

also 9a if the ratio is 9:3:3:1 then 9x+3x+3x+1x=100)

C) Read Ch.26 p.618-625.

**3/28,29 Day 26) Unit V,VI Test **(Chapters 18-25)

**A26:
**1) None. (Start reading Ch. 26?)

**3/27 Mon Day 25)** Review for test next class on Chapters 18-25.

**A)** Turn in the Day 25M Answer Key if absent

**B)** Study for Part V+VI Test (Chapters 18-25). next class.

C) Optional practice problems pg. 611-616 / 10, 12, 15, 23.

**3/23,24 Day 24)** Matched Pairs Chapter 25** **class example class notes

**A24:**

**A)** Turn in the completed class notes AND the completed Inference Guide for Quantitative Data.

**B)** in class finish pg. 602-608 / 1 (make experimental design flow charts), 9, 11, 15 (conf. int.), 19 (hypothesis test).

C) Read Chapter 25. Prepare for Ch.18-25 Quest next Tue/Wed.

** 3/20-22 Day 22)** Sample size needed for quantitative data. Comparing
means. "To pool or not to pool" and technology to the rescue
for a wicked degrees of freedom calculation.

22A (due 3/22,23):

C) read Chapter 24

Enrichment:

Do masks interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses? What story does the data tell? Use your AP Statistics tools to evaluate the data. Interview with lead author.

Dr. John Campbell discussion of the paper and appology.

Click here for another explaination of the Nearly Normal Condition.

C)

Read Chapter 23

Fisher's Applications of Student's Distribution

**03/09,10 Day 20)** **BIG Part V Test** **on Chapters 18-22.**

**20A: **

A) Relax.

**03/07,08 Day 19)** Begin reviewing for Part 5 Test (Thursday/Friday). Perfect Pitch.

**19A:**

**A) **complete and submit the vocabulary review for the Test on Ch. 18-22.

**B) **Barry Bonds problem, pg. 523-528 / 5, 11, 22, 23, 32(part *a - * assume A/C OK), 34, 37, 38. pg. 522 / 30 (show all steps)

**C) **Study for the ch. 18-22 Test next class.

EnrichmentI: Perfect Pitch Example for problem 22 and explanation UCSD, SciAmer.

Remeber: **Conclusions for Hypothesis Tests** should be 2 sentences:

**1st** - *P-value is __high / low__ therefore we __fail to reject / reject__ the null hypothesis.*

**2nd** - *There __isn't / is __ evidence ___(...in context of alternative hypothesis)___.*

**03/06 Day 18) **Begin reviewing for Part 5 Test (Chapters 18-22 Thursday/Friday).

Should you intentionally walk Barry Bonds?

**18A:**

**A) ** Complete Edpuzzle (check for understanding).

B) Begin A19_B review problems for Part 5 Test (Chapters 18-22).

**03/02,03 Day 17) **Chapter 22 - The difference of two proportions.

**17A: **

**A)** Complete and submit the class notes.

**B)** pg. 519-522 / 8 (8d sketch the entire model with empirical rule), 11, 18, 20, 24 (Show A/C for 11b, 18c, and 24a).

**C) **Finalize and submit the iInference guide for proportions.

Enrichment - extension of problem 11 pets and pesticides - UC Davis investigates autism and pesticides. Link 1, Link 2

**02/28,03/01 Day 16) **Quiz/Skills Check Chapters 18-21

**16A: **

**A)** Complete the FR Inference question then the skills check in Schoology.

**02/27 Mon. Day 15M) **Review Chapter 19 Quiz. Prepare for Ch.18-21 Skills Check next class.

**15M: **

**A****)** Complete the Edpuzzle due the day of class.

B) Prepare for Ch.18-21 Skills Check on Tue/Wed.

**02/16,17 Day 15) **Explore interactions between
Type I &Type II errors, Power, Effect Size, and Sample Size.

**15A: **

**A)** complete and submit the class notes for Days 15 and 16.

**B)** pg. 499-503 / 22, 24, 25, 28

C) Finish reading Ch.21 and prepare for Skills Check on Tue/Wed after break.

Enrichment:

http://www.intuitor.com/statistics/T1T2Errors.html

http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/Power/Power.html

**02/14,15 Day 14) ** Outcomes and errors
of hypothesis tests.

**14A:**

**A)** complete and submit page 2 of the class notes

**B)** pg. 499-503 / 3, 5, 20, 21.

C) read Ch.21 up to page 493.

**02/13 Day 14M) **Alpha Level, when is our sample proportion beyond a reasonable doubt (beyond the expectation of natural sampling variability).

**14A:**

**A)** complete page 1 of the class notes

B) read Ch.21 up to page 493.

**02/09,10 Day 13) **Review Day 12. Day 13 notes pages 1 & 2 to introduce hypothesis testing.

**13A** Assignment 13

**A)** Complete and submit the class notes pages 1 and 2

**B)** Complete and submit pg. 476-479 / 1, 3, 6, 7, 9, 12, 25.

C) Read chapter 20 and Fill in the Inference Guide

**Conclusions for Hypothesis Tests** should be 2 sentences:

**1st** - *P-value is __high / low__ therefore we __fail to reject / reject__ the null hypothesis.*

**2nd** - *There __isn't / is __ evidence ___(...in context of alternative hypothesis)___.*

*Remember: If you're HIGH, Then you FAIL

**02/07,08 Day 12) Quiz on Ch. 19.** Begin hypothesis testing.

**12A** Assignment 12

**A) **Complete the Edpuzzle.

**B)** Submit the Day 12 notes.

C) Begin reading chapter 20 if you want to get ahead.

**02/06 Day 11) ** Review for Quiz on Chapters 19 Tue/Wed.

**11A **Assignment 11

**A) **Study for the quiz on Ch. 19, review your notes, homework, book, and Notation Review

**B) **page 455-458 / 8, 15, 20, 26, 33, 35.

*Enrichment: *From early 2020 - Using available data to try and make good decisions. How fast is COVID-19 spreading? Two **non peer-reviewed** papers create confidence intervals for the R0 of 2019-nCoV:

1) We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (RR0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6 and 4.0)

2) The resulting mean of R estimates is 4.08, as expected, with SD=0.36 (95% CI 3.37~4.77).

**02/02,03 Day 10) ** Certainty vs. precision. Calculating
the n required for ME=? and ? Confidence Level. Notation Review Game.

**10A** Assignment 10

**A) **Complete and submit Day 10 notes.

**B) **page 455-458 / 6, 27, 30.

C) finish reading Ch. 19 (begin studying for Ch. 19 quiz next Tue/Wed.

Enrichment:

Do masks interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses? What story does the data tell? Use your AP Statistics tools to evaluate the data.

**01/31,02/01 Day 9) Quiz on Chapter 18 **then finish Day 9.

Real world applications - creating confidence intervals to help make good decisions.

**9A **Assignment 9

**A)** In class complete the 2 problems on the Day 9W notes.

**B) **page 455-458 / 2, 3, 5, 13, 17, 19 (hints: 17a show all steps (see inference guide), 19 check A/C and find a reason to stop!)

Enrichment:

Dr. Aseem Malhotra - true benefits and potential harms of mRNA COVID vaccines Pt. 1 & 2

MIT Professor Retsef Levi video message

Meta analysis of 95 studies of Ivermectin for COVID-19

FLCCC The Totality of Evidence

**01/30 Day 9M) **Learn
how to create a "*p*-trap" Otherwise
known as a confidence interval.**
**Calculating critical values for various
levels of confidence. Inference guide.

B) Study for the Ch. 18 Quiz next class.

**01/26,27 Day 8) **More CLT, know pg. 429! The law of diminishing returns. Begin ch.19.

**8A** Assignment 8

**A) **Complete and submit Day 8 notes.

**B) **page Pg. 432-438 / 40, 42, 43, 45, 54.

Be sure to memorize the Assumptions and Conditions for using a Normal Model as
the SDM for proportions and means. A hint for porportions:

**Indep**., Radomdomization, 10%, **Sample Size**, Success/Failure.

** "I ran 10 same size successful firms"**

**01/24,25 Day 7) **Review Test on Ch. 16-17. Continue transitioning from binomials to proportionsand the Central Limit Theorem.

**7A** Assignment 7:

**A)** Complete and submit pages 1-3 of the Day 7 notes.

**B) **Pg. 432-438 / 16, 26, 27, 28, 33, 37.

**01/23 Day 7M) **Transitioning from binomials to proportions. Sampling distribution models. Transitioning from sums to means. Computer simulations - discovering the Central Limit Theorem.

**7M** Assignment 7M is to start Assignment 7:

A)** **Watch the video, start to complete pages 1-3 of the Day 7 notes.

B) consider starting 7A (assignment 7)

Dice App, Central Limit Theorem App

**01/19,20 Day 6) **Quest on Chapters 16 and 17. Begin Ch 18

**6A **Assignment 6

**A) **Watch the video and complete the class notes, then upload.

B) Begin reading Ch. 18

**01/17,18 Day 5) **Review for Quest next class on Chapters 16 and 17.

**5A** Assignment 5

A) Study for the Quest next class on Chapters 16 and 17

**B)** on separate paper complete and upload pg. 405-410 / 3, 4, 12, 20, 28.

**01/12,13 Day 4) ** Assumptions and conditions. Determine when we can approximate the Binomial probability model with the Normal model. Check out the binomial distribution applets: Binomial Distribution -Berkeley How to win at gambling!

**4A** Assignment 3 of 2nd Semester:

**A)** upload a pdf of your completed class notes for today.

**B)** on separate paper complete and upload 1) pg. 401-404 / 18, 20, 22, 31, 34. (you can use your calculator but you must show your work)

C) Finish reading Ch.17, begin preparing for Ch. 16-17 Quest next Th/Fri.

**01/10,11 Day 3) **Present your game of chance. Geometric and Binomial probability models.

Learn to use your calculator for Geometric and Binomial probability models.

**3A** Assignment 3 of 2nd Semester:

**A)** upload a pdf of your completed class notes for today.

**B)** on separate paper complete (we will upload on Wed.) pg. 385 / 38, 40 and pg. 401-402 / 1, 2, 9, 11.

C) Read Ch.17

Enrichment:

Permutations Combinations Review

Proof of the 10% Condition

CDC Releases VAERS Safety Monitoring Analyses

The Most Important Dataset of the Pandemic?

Are they both spurious correlations if they match up? (Booster rates and excess mortality.)

**01/09 Day 3M) **Property insurance. Geometric probability models.

**3M:** Assignment 3M (yes we are starting with Assignment 3) of 2nd Semester:

**A)** upload a pdf of the front and back of your Game of Chance (counts as ½ a quiz).

B) Start reading Ch.17

Enrichment: The importance of Independence:

The Camp Fire

Credit Default Swaps - 60 Minutes

Read about attempts
to claw back bonuses based on illusory models.

More from Reuters ,
the Economist.

**12/19-22 Final Exams**

**12/15,16 Day 34) **Probability Histograms. Random variables continued and insurance basics. The Pythagorean Theorem of Statistics. Continuous random variables.

**34A**:

**A)** upload a pdf of your completed class notes pages 1-3 for today.

**B)** on separate paper complete and upload pg. 383-386 / 27, 29, 35, 37 (Due January 8th at 11:59 PM)

C) Study for the Final Exam.

Enrichment: Proof of Sum of 2 Indep. Normal
Random Variables is Normal

**12/13,14 Day 33) **Random Variables. Greedy Pig take 2. Games of Chance.**
33A**:

C) Read Ch.16 and continue studying for the final exam.

Optional: Begin designing your own game of chance due 1/10,11 (follow the instructions)

**12/12 Day 33M)** Review for Final Exam.

**33M:
A) **Submit the completed Ch.1-6 Review and Final Exam mixer key concept review.

B) Study for the final exam. Optional review questions are assigned in AP Classroom.

**12/08,09 Day 32)** Probability Simulation
Lab.

**32A:
A) **Complete and submit pages 1 and 2 of the Day 32 class notes by the end of class.

B) Study for the final exam. Optional review questions are assigned in AP Classroom.

**12/06,07 Day 31)** **Quiz on Chapters 14-15. Begin review for Final Exam.
**

**31A:**

None. However, consider doing some optional final exam review questions in AP Classroom.

**12/05 Day 31M)** Review for Ch. 14 & 15 test (quest)

**31M:**

**A)** Complete the Edpuzzle

**B)** pg. 405-410 / 1, 2, 37, 40, 41, 42

C) Study for test on Ch. 14 & 15, optional - complete the Kahoot.

**12/01,02 Day 30) **Disjoint and independence with conditional probability. Tree diagrams. Reversing the conditioning,
Screening Tests,

**30A: **

**A)** Submit the completed class notes for Day 30.

**B)** Pg. 364-365 / [1, 21, 30 make Venn Diagrams], 31, [38, 40, 41, 46 make tree diagrams]

C) Finish reading Ch. 15 and study for Ch. 14-15 Quiz Tue/Wed.

**11/29,30 Day 29) **** **Discover the General Addition
Rule and conditional probability leading to General Multiplication Rule.

**29A:**

**A)** Upload the completed class notes for Day 29

**B)** Pg. 361-365 / Using Venn Diagrams when possible 2,4,5,6,10,14,15,19. (Make Venn Diagrams for 2,4,19)

C) Read Ch.15 up to page 352.

**11/28 Day 28M)** Chapter 14 From Randomness
to Probability continued.

**28M: **

**B) **pg. 338-341 / 3,4,5,6,7,19,21,23,25,27,35,36. (probability answers in decimals not %s)

C) Read Ch. 14 and review the Step By Step example.

**11/23 Day 28W)** Chapter 14 From Randomness
to Probability. Challenger Space Shuttle - redundancy is not a replacement for independence.

**28W: **

**A)** Watch the Edpuzzle and submit the completed class notes

**11/21,22 Day 27)** **Test on Ch.11,12,13 **

**A27:**

**A)** None

**11/17,18 Day 26)** Review for Test next class (Mon/Tue) on Chapters 11-13.

Review experimental design: Polio vaccines and keeping deer of highways.

**26A:**

**A**) Complete and submit Keeping Deer Off Highways.

**B)** Pg. 317-322 / 1,2,3,4,16,17,18,19 (simulation w/10 trials each w/5 games), 22,25,31,33 (time to finish these last 4 problems in class on Wed.)

C) Study for the test on Ch. 11,12,13 this Mon/Tue

D) Work on Extra Credit Vocabulary Review Crossword Puzzle (due before Test Mon/Tue)

FYI: Compare and contrast polio from 70 years ago with COVID-19 today

The Biggest Public Health Experiment Ever: The 1954 Field Trial of the Salk Vaccine

__6 Month Safety and Efficacy__ of the Pfizer Vaccine

CDC: How Schools and Early Care and Education (ECE) Programs Can Support COVID-19 Vaccination

(See Schoology for Peter Doshi comments on critically assessing biomedical studies)

Harm-benefit analysis of vaccine-related CAEs in relation to COVID-19 hospitalization risk

Subclinical Myocarditis - NEW Report from Switzerland - Vital Findings

**11/15,16 Day 25)** Experimental Design Ethics. Review experimental design, fish tank problem. Infromed consent in medical experiments. Review Ch. 11,12 Quiz.

**25A:**

B) Pg. 312-315 / 11,16,17,18, 34, 35.

C) Finish Reading Ch. 13 and begin studing for Ch. 11-13 Test 11/21,22

D) Work on Extra Credit Vocabulary Review Crossword Puzzle

Enrichment: Ethics

The Tuskegee Experiment: Summary, Government Apology, CDC, Tuskegee
Univ., Tuskegee
Univ., Photos **
**a) When did it begin and what disease was the Tuskegee
experiment tying to learn more about?

b) What aspects of experimental design were employed in the Tuskegee experiment?

c) What aspects were omitted?

d) When did the Tuskegee experiment become unethical?

e) When and why was it ended?

f) How did Tuskegee change research practices?

More interesting links:

Standford cancer breakthrough using mice

Parkinson’s Study – Active Placebo, holes drilled in head.

The Ethics of Placebo Controlled Trials

Ethical, Scientific, and Regulatory Perspectives Regarding the Use of Placebos in Cancer Clinical Trials

Nonconsensual Medical Experiments on Human Beings

Enrichment: Informed Consent

https://www.fda.gov/patients/clinical-trials-what-patients-need-know/informed-consent-clinical-trials and https://www.fda.gov/media/88915/download

Informed Consent - It's Your Right

**11/14 Day 25M)** Lurking vs Counfounding.

**25M:**

**A)** Submit the class notes for pages 1 & 2.

**Get started on 25A_B) **(due Wed/Th night) Pg. 312-315 / 11,16,17,18, 34, 35.

C) Finish Reading Ch. 13

**11/09,10 Day 24)** Chapter 13 Experiments. Retro-Observational study is like detective work.

**24A:
A)** Complete and submit the Day 24 class notes.

Enrichment:

Clinical Profile of First 1000 COVID-19 Cases: An Indian Experience

The Incidence of Myocarditis and Pericarditis in Post COVID-19 Unvaccinated Patients

**11/07,08 Day 23) Quiz on Chapters 11 & 12.**

Begin Chapter 13 Observational Studies and Experiments.

**23:
A)** Complete the 2 Edpuzzles and submit both pages of the class notes.

Enrichment:

Ribavirin scandal inappropriate treatment assignment from the Edpuzzle.

**11/03,04 Day 22)** Review response bias (induced
bias due to question wording or interviewer influence). Review all biases. Review Sampling Strategies - explained with Random Rectangles.

**A22:** Input your random Rectangle Part 3 Data

**A)** Submit Random Rectangles Part 3 pages 1,2, and 4.

**B) **Pg. 288-291 / 10,17,19,27,32,35.

C) Prepare for quiz Mon/Tue on Chapters 11 & 12. Know your vocab and make sure you know how to conduct a simulation (Who's your buddy?, Biases I hope to . . .).

**11/01,02 Day 21)** Continue study design - Sample
Surveys and Bias. Sampling Strategies.

**A21:**

**A)** Complete the Edpuzzle and submit class notes page 2 and the random rectangle analysis.

**B)** Pg. 288-291 / 7, 8, 20, 22, 23, 25, 26.

C) Read Chapter 12.

**10/31 Day 21M)** Begin study design - Sample
Surveys and Bias.

**21M: **

**A)** Complete the Edpuzzle and submit the class notes for page 1.

B) Begin reading chapter 12.

**Biases I hope to N V R C U. **

**10/27,28 Day 20)** Introduction to Randomness.

Random Rectangles and Simulation using randint( ).

**A20:**

**A)** Turn in the completed class notes pages 1-3 as a 1 file pdf.

Input your Random Rectangles answers into the GoogleForm **using your FUHSD account**:

**B)** Pg. 265-267 / 1, 2, 4, 11, 13, 15, 19, 25, 34 ( 19 & 25 use Pg. A-73 Appendix G for a list of random numbers, 34 use Randint(1,6,2) for rolling two dice. For all 3 be sure to define SCOTR for each then do 15 trails for each.)

C) Read Chapter 11

Enrichment: Check out www.random.org for more info
about random numbers.

Random number generators. Random numbers with your
calculator. True random vs. pseudorandom numbers

**10/25,26 Day 19)** **Test on Chapters 7-9**

19A:

Start reading chaper 11.

Enrichment:

Check out www.random.org for more info
about random numbers.

Using radioactive material to generate random numbers

**10/24 Day 19M)** Review for Test on Chapters 7-9 next class. What is Ch. 10 about and Intro to Randomness.

19MA:

A) Classwork: complete the class notes

**B) Make corrections to 18A_B book problems
C) Study for the test next class on Chapters 7-9.
**

Enrichment:

Chapter 10 resources: Solving exponential and log equations, Ladder of Powers

Interesting boxplots incorporating data - UC Viral Load Study

Dual Scatterplot, extrapolation in the title!, How confident?, Vit. D corr. with Covid mortality

**10/20,21 Day 18)** Review for 10/25,26 Test on Chapters 7-9.

**18A:**

**A)** Turn in Day 18 pages 1 & 2 of YOUR notes. (your Long Jump with

classmates evaluation)

**B)** Pg. 243-244 / 30 and pg. 245-252 /1, 8, 9, 24, 26, 27, 30, 31

C) Study for the 10/25,26 Test on Chapters 7-9.

(optional) Review the Kahoot practice questions.

**10/18,19 Day 17)** What can go wrong with regression continued.

**17A:**

**A)** Turn in the completed class notes – pages 1 and 2.

**B)** Pg. 214-221 / 1, 6, 29.

C) Study for 10/25,26 Test on Chapters 7-9. If you want, get a head start on 18A_B.

FYI: Climate Change, you now have tools to help critically evaluate all sides of the issue.

https://data.globalchange.gov/indicator?current=1,

https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/us-heat-waves,

Princeton's William Happer rebuts myth of carbon pollution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tul07hx8V8w Could the sun be the major contributor?

**10/07,08 Day 16) **What can go wrong with regression (continued). Using linear regression to investigate the FL 2000 U.S. Presedential Election and the infamous butterfly ballot. Take a trip to the dentist, amalgams vs. fecal mercury.

**16A**: Assignment 16

**A)** By the end of class complete 16D notes pages 1 & 2 + 17D page 2 (we will do 17D page 1 next week)

**B)** Make corrections to 15A_B Book Problems

C) Read Chapter 9

FYI:

FL Election Results (Excel
97-03) (Excel 2007) (PDF)

View the infamous Butterfly Ballot.

David Quig, PhD - IAOMT presentation: mercury derived from amalgam fillings

(minutes 8:55 - 20:00 pertain to the investigation we did in class.)

**10/11,12 Day 15)** What can go wrong with regression.

Learn how leverage and residual produce three flavors of outliers.

Enrichment:
Evaluate real life examples of linear regression and outliers

...................(Gun violence paper 1 & 2 and Covid outbreaks).

**15A:
**A) Complete page 1 of the Day 16 notes in class (we will finish page 2 on Th/Fri)

FYI: mix your own flavor of outlier with the Correlation Regression Demo (be sure to click on the mean-mean line and regression line).

Enrichment:Use your knowledge of linear regression to evaluate the paper (and supplement) out of the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies that finds, "At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1)."

**10/10 Day 15M)** **Quiz ****on Correlation and Regression Ch. 7 & 8**

**15M:** (after the quiz)

**A)** complete the handout activity - The
Wayward Point

**10/06,07 Day 14)** Clarify the role of R^2, visual, proof challenge. Check
out this R^2 Animation (I
made this to animate the information in the blue box on page 183 of our book).
Discuss the success of the model vs. the appropriateness of the model. Learn
to utilize residual plots. Learn to do it on your calculator.

*We can calculate the mean of skewed data, but is it appropriate?*

We can calculate the R^2 of non-linear associations, but is it appropriate?

Answering - How Confident are you in your prediction?

C) Study for the quiz on chapters 7 and 8 next class (Days 12-14)

Enrichment:

Acumulated Cyclone Energy, Global Warming and Hurricanes.

C) Read Ch. 8

**10/03 Monday Day 12M)** Review Answers to Test Ch 1-6

**12M:
A) **Use the key in DAy 12M folder to make corrections to 12A_B book problems.

**09/29,30 Day 12)** Discover a numerical summary for the strength of the __association between two quantitative variables__ (the spread of points about the form). Be able to calculate correlation coefficients on your calculator.

**12A:**

**A) **Turn in the completed class notes.

**B) **Complete the problems 164-170 / 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 20, 23, 24, 25, 29, 34, 35, 38.

C) Read Ch. 7

Enrichment: Four Square Multiple Choice _ Plot your own points

Causation? Screen time might boost depression, suicide behaviors in teens .

**09/27,28 Day 11) **Big Test on everything so far this year - Chapters 1-6.

**11A - Assignment 11:**

A) None.

**09/26 Day 11M)** Introduction to Part 2

**Classwork 11M:
A) **finish and submit the handout (available in Schoology)

C) Study for BIG TEST on Ch. 1-6 next class.

**09/22,23 Day 10)** Review for **Big Test next Tue/Wed.**

**10A:**

**A) **pg. 135-143 / 10, 20, 33, 36, 38. 5, 8 (draw the entire normal model), 14, 25, 27

B) Review for** Big Test next Tue/Wed.** Review your class notes and assignments from Days 1-10, Chapters 1-6 of your book, as well as the **Key Concepts**.

**9/20,21 Day 9**) Small Quiz on Ch. 6. History of Normal Models. Normal Probability Plot.

**9A - Assignment 9:**

**A) **Submit completed class notes for 9D pages 1 and 2.

**B)** get a head start on A10 (Due Sunday night)

C) Review for BIG TEST nexst Tue/Wed

Enrichment: In 1733 Abraham de Moivre, drawing on the work of Jacob and Nicolaus Bernoulli, calculus, and the underlying structure of Pascal's Triangle, demonstrated how a set of random drawings would distribute themselves around their average value. De Moivre's distribution is know today as a normal curve. It makes it possible to evaluate the probability that a given number of observations will fall within some specified bound around a true ratio.

**9/19 Monday Day 9M)** Drawing Normal Models and the Empirical Rule.

Ch. 6 Quiz next class (primarily Ch.6)

**9M - Assignment 9M:**

**A) **Complete page 2 of the class notes (we will finish page 1 next class).

**B)** pg. 131-133 / 25, 26 (25,26 draw the entire model), 31, 32, 44 (draw individual curves and show z score calculations).

C) Read Ch.6 to prepare for a small quiz on Ch. 6 Tue./Wed.

**09/15,16 Day 8)** Journey to Mathmagic Land to discover the power of the Normal Model. Know the __cereal example__ pages 121-123.

**8A - Assignment 8:**

**A)** Complete and submit the class notes.

**B)** p.129-133 / 7, 9, 10, 38, 40, 45 (draw Normal curves **for each part** of 38,40,45)

Remember N(100, 16) means the mean = 100 and standard deviation = 16 for your z-score calculations.

C) Read pages 116-123.

D) Begin preparing for a quiz on Ch. 6 next Tue/Wed.

Enrichment:

Denmark: No More COVID Vaccines Offered for Under-50

**9/13,14 Day 7)** **Quiz Chapters 4 and 5.** You can compare !

If you use the standard deviation as a ruler. Begin Ch. 6 Measuring with Standard Deviations. Z-score practice.

**7A - Assignment 7:**

**A) **Complete and submit the class notes.

**B)** p.129-130 / 3, 6, 11, 12, 16, 18, 22.

C) Read pages 104-111.

FYI: __Check out__ the official decathlon scoring tables and the theory behind them.

**09/12 Mon. Day 6M)** Review for Quiz next class (Primarily on Chapters 4 and 5).

**6M - Assignment 6M:** Warm Up:
Make corrections to A5_B,

**A)** Complete the in class problems.

**B)** Complete the Exit Ticket Vocabulary Review.

**C) **Complete the Decathlon Investigation handout – both sides

D) **Review for Tue/Wed Quiz**. Study your class notes (concepts/vocab), assignments, and review Chapters 4 and 5 of our book (you can ignore Re-expressing Data pgs 89-91). The quiz will focus primarily on displaying quantitative data and describing distributions numerically but everything covered so far is fair game.

Enrichment: It isn't a solution if it's more detrimental than the problem.

**COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments against Mandates at Universities**

Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults

**0****9/08,09 Day 6)** Investigate a measure of spread to complement the mean.

Decide when to use which measure of center and spread. Calculators are for calculating aren't they? Learn to find all or our summary statistics with the calculator! Review for Quiz next Tue/Wed. (Primarily on Chapters 4 and 5).

**6A - Assignment 6:**

**A)** Edpuzzle – Standard Deviation Theory

**B)** pages 75-78 / 48,50 (no reports, just write a few sentences) pages 95-100 / #7, 28, 30.

**C)** Complete the Decathlon Investigation handout –side 1

D) **Review for Quiz next Tue/Wed**. Study your class notes (concepts/vocab), assignments, and review Chapters 4 and 5 of our book (you can ignore Re-expressing 8Data pgs 89-91). The quiz will focus primarily on displaying quantitative data and describing distributions numerically but everything covered so far this year is fair game.

**for newer TI84 users:** If your 1-Var Stats input asks for Frequency and you want it to be 1. Then just hit clear and enter.

Enrichment: Advantages of the mean deviation, standard deviation proof, and

Why divide by n-1

What does Pfizer's data on 8 mice say about risk/reward of the Bivalent Omicron Booster?

UCSF Dr. & Professor Vinay Prasad discusses risk/reward for bivalent (Omicron) boosters.

Part 1 and Part 2

**09/06,07 Day 5)** Figure out how to describe the distribution of quantitative data numerically. Be able to calculate 5-number summaries and create boxplots. What can a time plot tell you that a histogram cannot? Investigate the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

**5A - Assignment 5:**

**A)** complete and submit pages 1 and 2 of the class notes

**B)** handwritten on a separate piece of paper complete the following 3 parts:

1. Complete the penny problem from class.

2. Think of and list 3 time series that exhibit seasonal

variation. Be sure to describe the cause (or potential

cause) of the seasonal variation.

3. Pg. 72-76 / 6, 8, 10, 42, Pg. 101-102 / 36

**C)** Join our AP Section on your College Board Account if you didn't last week.

**09/01,02 Day 4)** **Quiz on Part I Chapters 1,2,3. ** Then continue to investigate ways of displaying quantitative data. The nuances of creating stem-and-leaf displays. Histograms with the calculator and the importance of proper bar width.

**Assignment 4:** Handouts and Submissions for parts A, B, and C through Schoology

Read your book up to page 52.

**A)** complete the Edpuzzle

**B)** complete and submit the class notes

**C)** complete and submit Pg. 72-75 / 5, 7, 9, 32

**D)** Join our AP Section on your College Board Account (see Schoology message)

**08/30,31 Tue/Wed Day 3) **Explore Simpson's Paradox. Review for Th/Fri quiz on Ch. 1-3. Review of Six Month Safety and Efficacy.

**3A** Assignment 3:

**A)** (in class) Edpuzzle: check for understanding - book review Ch. 1-3.

B) Study for quiz on Chapters 1-3 Th/Fri

1) Read you book chapters 1-3.

2) Review the Think, Show, Tell format in the Step-By-Step

Example pg. 31-32.

3) study your class notes and vocabulary

4) review your assignments

C) Start Day 4 Th/Fri notes if you want using the Edpuzzle in the Day 4 Schoology folder.

Enrichment:

Real life example of Simpson’s Pardox with COVID-19 data 12:48-14:55

Does the FDA think these data justify the first full approval of a covid-19 vaccine?

COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates for Children Obligate Action (lots of links for more information)

Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (pdf)

UCSF Dr. & Professor Vinay Prasad discusses risk/reward for bivalent (Omicron) boosters

According to the CDC, "education and messaging to help individual persons understand their risk for medically significant illness complements recommendations for prevention strategies based on risk."

College name and vaccine mandate information.

**08/29 Monday Day 3M) **Review segmented bar charts to determine independence/association of two categorical variables, evaluate the Investigative Task, and review for quiz Th/Fri.

**3M** Assignment 3:

**A)** (in class) Watch the Edpuzzle instructions on how to self-assess assignments. Then self-assess 2A_B Smoking and Education in Schoology.

**B)** (in class) Submit completed rubric review of your partner's 6 Month Safety and Efficacy in Schoology.

**C)** Do pg. 37-43 / problems 15, 16, 22, 36.

D) Study for quiz on Chapters 1-3 Th/Fri

1) Read you book chapters 1-3.

2) Review the Think, Show, Tell format in the Step-By-Step Example pg. 31-32.

3) study your class notes and vocabulary

4) review your assignments

**08/25,26 Th/Fri Day 2****) **Displaying and Describing
Categorical Data, Take a trip on the Titanic. Investigate contingency tables, conditional
distribution, and segmented bar charts, and independence/association between categorical variables. Titanic - Does chance of survival depend on ticket class? COVID-19 - Does chance of survival depend on age?

**2A** Assignment 2: Submit parts A, B, and C through Schoology

**A)** Finish the 3 pages of the class notes.

**B)** Assignment 3 handout (Smoking and Education) (see Ch. 3 example problems for hints)

**C)** Complete the investigative task __6 Month Safety and Efficacy__ on a separate paper. Reference 6 Month Safety and Efficacy Report and Appendix.

D) Read Ch. 1-3 of your book in preparation for quiz next Th/Fri.

Enrichment:

CDC COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios, Infection fatality rate analysis

Protection and Waning of Natural and Hybrid Immunity to SARS-CoV-2

CDC Update: Summary of Guidance for Minimizing the Impact of COVID-19

**08/23,24 Tue/Wed Day 1)** Why AP Statistics? What to expect from the course and your teacher. Get a taste of statistics being utilized in a real-world setting. Discuss AP Test expectations. Learn to describe data in its context. Investigate types of variables.

**Assignment 1:**

**A) **Complete the Green Sheet and AP Statistics Course and Exam Guide scavenger hunt in Schoology.

**B)** complete both sides of the class notes, including the problems on page 2 if you didn't finish during classtime. Then upload a multipage pdf of pages 1 and 2 of the notes.

Consider: Genius Scan, Cam Scanner, etc.

**C)** Read Chapters 1 and 2 of your book. If you don’t have a book, a digital copy is available in Schoology.

**08/****22 Mon.**** Day 0 ** Introduction to AP Statistics (45 min. class)

Organization of course resources, class structure, resources.

**0A - Assignment 0:** also posted in Schoology with links

**A)** Discover __The Joy of Stats__, complete the Edpuzzle in the Day 0 folder.

B) Begin reading Chapters 1 and 2.