Key Concepts: Ch. 1-6, Ch. 7-10

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10/21 Day 35) 60% Test on Regression Wisdom & Re-expression. (Days 26-34)
A37:
1) None.

Friday 10/18 Day 34) Re-expression wrap up. Review for Monday's Part 2 Test on Regression Wisdom and Re-expression. (Primarily Days 26-34)
A34: (due Monday)
1) Review for Monday's Test - Regression Wisdom & Re-expression. (Days 26-34)
2) Review Chapters 9, 10 of your book.
3) Pg. 243-244 / 29, 30.
4) Pg. 249-252 / 26, 27, 40.
FYI: Video - Correlation matrix in time series analysis (moving average vs lag at 2min)
Corresponding paper referenced in the video above.

10/16,17 B_Day 33) Part 2 of, Is Pluto a planet?
A33:
Friday you will be picking your new seat - so think about where you want to be and who you want to sit next to.
1) Pg. 242-243 / 20(position=x),21,22.
sketch the original scatter plot, re-express to find an appropriate model (write the equation of the model, comment on the residual plot, comment on R^2). Also for 20, 21 calculate the residual value.
FYI: The Pluto Files and New Horizons probe Pluto Photos & Analysis 1 and 2.
Universal Understanding Through Unit Conversions

10/15 Day 32) Finish determining the association between shutter speed and aperture. Investigate log-log re-expression. Is Pluto a planet?
TI89 Green Diamond, 7 = LOG
A32: ia valid Law?)
Hint: In discussing the accuracy of a model you should comment on its appropriateness and success.
1) Complete the Day 31 Investigation parts c) and d)
2) (continue work on A31) Pg. 242-243 / 17(year=x), 18(dist.=x), 19(position=x)
sketch the original scatter plot, re-express to find an appropriate model (write the equation of the model, comment on the residual plot, comment on R^2). Also for 19b calculate the residual value.
FYI: What type of outlier is the market performance on 2/5/2018 and what re-expresion might you consider using?
Type of outlier

10/11 Day 31) Review Components necessary for succeessful regression problem answers. More on re-expression and the Ladder of Powers.
TI89 Green Diamond, 7 = LOG
A31:
1) Pg. 239-243 / 14, 15. [When talking about "confidence in your prediction" make sure you mention I) appripriate - evidenced by residual plot (random scatter with no form remaining) II) successful - evidenced by R^2 III) extrapolation small or large?]
2) Complete the Day 31 Investigation parts a) and b)
Investigate the photographic effects of the association with the SimCam.

10/09,10 B_Day 30) How to deal with curved data - Try wacking it with a LOG!
Re-expression with the Ladder of Powers
TI89 Green Diamond, 7 = LOG
A30: (due Friday)
1) Read Ch. 10
2) Pg. 239-240 / 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.
3) Complete the investigation into the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. (graded separately)
FYI: A2T Review Solving exponential and log equations, .... What an outlier looks like

10/08 Day 29) What can go wrong with regression continued - Means (or other summaries) rather than actual data. Is there an association between the number of amalgam fillings (approximately 50% mercury) a person has and the amount of mercury in their stool?
A29:
1) Read and know Chapter 9.
2) complete the Investigative Task - Long Jump.
3) complete the algebra graphs on page 2 of the handout.
4) Continue working on the investigation into the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. (Due Fri. and graded separately)
FYI: David Quig, PhD - IAOMT presentation: mercury derived from amalgam fillings
(minutes 8:55 - 20:00 pertain to the investigation we did in class.)
Amalgams and Fecal Mercury
Comment on the Detrending of the Buffet Indicator in this article.

10/07 Day 28) Pop Quiz! Then what can go wrong with regression continued - Changes in pattern.
A28:
1) Complete the graduating class activity (notice how similar it is to Heat Wave index below).
2) Pg. 214-221 / 1, 29, 6, 30. (due Tuesday)
3) due Friday: Complete the investigation into the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. (graded separately)
FL Election Results (Excel 97-03) (Excel 2007) (PDF)
View the infamous Butterfly Ballot.
FYI: Climate Change, you now have tools to help critically evaluate all sides of the issue.
USGCRP Indicators Heat Wave Overlay Suspicious Observers If you ignore the datahttps://data.globalchange.gov/indicator?current=1,
https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/us-heat-waves,

10/04 Day 27) What can go wrong with regression. Learn how leverage and residual produce three flavors of outliers.
A27:
1) Pg. 214-221 / 11, 13, 14, 25, 27, 15.
2) mix your own flavor of outlier with the Correlation Regression Demo (be sure to click on the mean-mean line and regression line).
3) What type of outlier is the United States in the Graph of Gun Deaths below?

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

10/02,03 B_Day 26) 60% Test on Correlation and Regression Ch. 7&8 (Days 18-25)
A26:
1) complete the handout activity - The Wayward Point (due Friday)
Have the calculator do it all. Draw the regression line for each graph with the calculator then by hand. When you do, the residuals are automatically calculated and saved. You can move them to a "normal" list by storing them in L3: 2nd STAT RESID STO-> L3. Now in addition to reading off the size of the residual, you can also do 1-Var Stats to find SD of the residuals.

10/01 Day 25) Review appropriateness vs. success of the regression model. Get a preview to an end of year topic of the role of correlation in portfolio optimization (investing). Review for Test next class on Part 2 Chapters 7&8 (except Straghtening Scatterplots p. 158-160) (Days 18-25)
A25: (continue on A24)
1) pg. 245-250 / 24, 29, 30, 31
3) Study for the 60% Test next class. It will cover Days 18-25. Look over your notes, assignments, Key Concepts list, and Ch.7-8 of your text (except Straghtening Scatterplots p. 158-160)

9/30 Day 24) check for understanding Quiz on Ch. 7 (except Straghtening Scatterplots p. 158-160) and Ch. 8
A24:

1) pg. 194 / 27 pg. 245-250 / 1, 8, 9,
2) Begin to prepare for 60% Test Block Day

9/27 Day 23) Clarify the role of R^2. Check out this R^2 Animation (I made this to animate the information in the blue box on page 183 of our book). Discuss the success of the model vs. the appropriateness of the model. Learn to utilize residual plots. Learn to do it on your calculator. Finish the class notes here
We can calculate the mean of skewed data, but is it appropriate?
We can calculate the R^2 of non-linear associations, but is it appropriate?

4 very different scatter plots with the same R^2 (66.6%)
A23:

1) Complete the detailed problem on page 2 of your class notes. (see Step-by Step Example p.185+ in your book)
2) Study for a check for understanding quiz on Monday. It will cover Days 18-23. Look over your notes (including vocabulary!), assignments, and study Ch. 7 & 8 (except Straghtening Scatterplots p. 158-160). 60% Test next block day.
3) Check out the correlation, regression, residual plot applets A or B.

9/25,26 B_Day 22) How to write the equation for the line of best fit and other interesting discoveries from doing a big proof.
A22:
1) Complete the problems on the class handouts (Day 22 page 4)
2) Begin to prepar for quiz on Monday. It will cover Days 18-23. Look over your notes, assignments, and study Ch. 7 & 8 (except Straghtening Scatterplots p. 158-160)
FYI: A Brief History of Linear Regression

9/24 Day 21) How can we use the correlation coefficient to estimate the y value for a given x value?
A21:
1) complete the problems on the class handouts.
2) Here is the McDonald's data for example 6: Excel 97-2003 Excel 2007
Look at Appendix B in the back of your book (starting on page A-3) for Excel Instructions
(Insert tab, Scatterplot) (Formulas tab, More Functions, Statistical)
If you want to check out the Nutritional Facts for the entire McDonalds menu click here.
FYI: Causation? Screen time might boost depression, suicide behaviors in teens .

09/23 Day 20) Does correlation imply causation?
A20:
1) pg. 164-170 / 38, 13, 20, 25, 23, 24, 29 (in that order)
2) Read Ch. 7 pg. 146-158.
Lurking Variable
FYI: Here are some of the links discussed in class:
Spurious Correlations
Despite our guest lecturer who insisted that Cancer Causes Smoking, we now know
that it is smoking that causes cancer.
Other links:
Cause and Effect
More on Smoking and Cancer

09/21 Day 19) Discover a numerical summary for the strength of the association between two quantitative variables (the spread of points about the form). Be able to calculate correlation coefficients on your calculator.
A19:
1) Complete the problems on the class notes (including pg. 164-168 / 6, 11, 35, 33, 34).
2) Practice the "Correlated Crazies" games:
Four Square Multiple Choice _ Plot your own points

09/18,19 B_Day 18) Big Test on everything so far this year, Ch.1-6. Begin to explore relationships between two quantitative variables.
A18:
1) Read pages 146-150
2) complete the class notes
3) complete the problems on both sides of the class notes. (including pg.164-165 / 1,3,5,7)

09/17 Day 17) Review for Big Test next class!
A17: (continue work on A16)
1) pg. 136-141 / 5, 8 (draw the entire normal model), 14, 25, 27
2) Review for Big Test next class. Review your class notes and assignments from Days 1-16, the Key Concepts list, and Chapters 1-6 of your book.
Chapter 1-6 summary page

Monday 09/16 Day 16) Small Ch. 6 check for understanding quiz.
Review for Block Day's Test.
A16:
1) pg. 135-143 / 10, 20, 33, 36, 38.
3) Begin reviewing for next Block Day's Big Test. Review your class notes and assignments from Days 1-16, Chapters 1-6 of your book, as well as the Key Concepts.

09/13 Day 15) Normal Probability Plot. Drawing Normal Models and the Empirical Rule.
A15:
1) pg. 131-133 / 25, 26 (25,26 draw the entire model), 31, 32, 44 (draw individual curves and show z score calculations).
2) Very small (10 point) Quiz on Chapter 6 on Monday. (a check up before the test)
3) Begin preparing for 1st
BIG TEST next Block Day. Ch. 1-6 (review Key Concepts)
FYI: In 1733 Abraham de Moivre, drawing on the work of Jacob and Nicolaus Bernoulli, calculus, and the underlying structure of Pascal's Triangle, demonstrated how a set of random drawings would distribute themselves around their average value. De Moivre's distribution is know today as a normal curve. It makes it possible to evaluate the probability that a given number of observations will fall within some specified bound around a true ratio.

09/13 Day 15) Normal Probability Plot. Drawing Normal Models and the Empirical Rule.
A15:
1) pg. 131-133 / 25, 26, 31, 32, 44.
2) Begin preparing for 1st big test next Block Day. Ch. 1-6
FYI: In 1733 Abraham de Moivre, drawing on the work of Jacob and Nicolaus Bernoulli, calculus, and the underlying structure of Pascal's Triangle, demonstrated how a set of random drawings would distribute themselves around their average value. De Moivre's distribution is know today as a normal curve. It makes it possible to evaluate the probability that a given number of observations will fall within some specified bound around a true ratio.

09/11,12 B_Day 14) Journey to Mathmagic Land to discover the power of the Normal Model. Know the cereal example pages 121-123.
A14:
1) Read pages 116-123.

2
) p.129-133 / 7, 9, 10, 38, 40, 45 (draw Normal curves for each part of 38,40,45)
Remember N(100, 16) means the mean = 100 and standard deviation = 16 for your z-score calculations.
3) Begin preparing for 1st big test next Block Day. Ch. 1-6

Z scores to Percents

09/10 Day 13) Measuring with Standard Deviations. Z-score practice. Review last quiz.
A13:
1) p.129-130 / 3,6,11,12,16,18,22.
2) Read pages 104-111.
Measuring with Standard Deviations

09/10 Day 12) You can compare apples n oranges!
If you use the standard deviation as a ruler.
Complete Page 2 of the class notes here.
TI89 Users:
When manipulating lists (ex L1-12 STO L2) do it outside the list editor.
A1
2:
1) Complete the class notes and the three problems on page 2.
2) Read pages 104-111.
FYI: Check out the official decathlon scoring tables and the theory behind them.

Who is the taller person

Friday 09/06 Day 11) Quiz Chapters 4 and 5
TI89 Users: When manipulating lists (ex L1-12 STO L2) do it outside the list editor.
A11: Due Monday
1) Complete the Decathlon Investigation handout - both sides. (Due Monday)

09/04,05 B_Day 10) Calculators are for calculating aren't they? Learn to find all or our summary statistics with the calculator! Review for Block Day's Quiz (Primarily on Chapters 4 and 5).
A10:
Special Notice for newer TI84 users: If your 1-Var Stats input asks for Frequency and you want it to be 1. Then just hit clear and enter.
1) complete the problems on the class notes using your calculator where appropriate.
2) pages 75-78 / 48,50 (just write a few sentences) pages 95-100 / #7, 28, 30.
3) check out the relationship between median and mean for various distributions with this applet 1
4) Review for Friday's Quiz. Study your class notes (concepts/vocab), assignments, and review Chapters 4 and 5 of our book (you can ignore Re-expressing Data pgs 89-91). The quiz will focus primarily on displaying quantitative data and describing distributions numerically but everything covered so far is fair game.
5) Get a head start on Friday's assignment - Decathlon Investigation handout (both sides).
FYI: Advantages of the mean deviation and answer to yesterday's proof challenge.

09/03 Day 9) Learn the limitations of IQR as a measure of spread and investigate a measure of spread to complement the mean. Decide when to use which measure of center and spread. Class investigation
A9:
1) Finish reading Chapters 4 and 5 (you can skip Re-expressing data 89-91 for now)
2) Complete the problems on pg. 3 (1-4) and pg. 4 (problem 5 part 7 only - calculate the standard deviation by hand for the Mooseburger data) of class notes.
3) Review for Friday's Quiz. Study your class notes (concepts/vocab), assignments, and review Chapters 4 and 5 of our book (you can ignore Re-expressing Data pgs 89-91). The quiz will focus primarily on displaying quantitative data and describing distributions numerically but everything covered so far is fair game.
For those interested: Why divide by n-1
Challenge: Use calculus to prove that the mean is the minimum for the sum of the squared deviations from the mean.

08/30 Day 8) Figure out how to describe the distribution of quantitative data numerically.
Be able to calculate 5-number summaries and create boxplots.
Also read pages 80-82 for assistance with Boxplots.
Assignment 8: (on separate paper, no graphing calculator - I want to see work)
1) Complete the problems on pages 3 and 4 of the class notes.

Note: for page 4 #5 (i) Just write 1 short sentence for each NOT a paragraph!
2) Begin to prepare for
next Friday's "real" quiz. Study Ch. 4-5, your assignments, and notes.

08/28,29 B_Day 7) What can a time plot tell you that a histogram cannot? Investigate the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Assignment 7: (due Friday)
1) Think of and list 3 time series that exhibit seasonal variation. Be sure to describe the cause (or potential cause) of the seasonal variation.
2) Complete the pennie problem on the Day 7 handout.
3) Pg. 72-76 / 6, 8, 10, 42, Pg. 101-102 / 36
FYI: El Nino video, 22 years of sea surface temperatures.
Trump Tweets

08/27 Day 6) Conitinue to investigate ways of displaying quantitative data. The nuances of creating stem-and-leaf displays. Histograms with the calculator and the importance of proper bar width. Create histograms from frequency tables.
Assignment 6:
1) Read your book up to page 52.
2) Finish the page 1 of the class notes and complete the histograms on page 2.
2) Pg. 72-75 / 5, 7, 9, 32 (Hint: after entering the data into L1 you may want to try out the sort feature to make creating the stem-and-leaf display easier).

TI89 bin width hint: range divided by number of bars (# of observations / 5)

08/26 Day 5) Quiz on Part I Chapters 1,2,3. Then on to displaying quantitative data.
Begin to learn your calculator's statistical capabilities.
Assignment 5:
1) Read pages 44-48 of Chapter 4.
2) Complete the problems on both sides of the class handout. (See your book p.14-15, p.46, Appendix B, the class notes, and the Resources section of the class website for calculator instructions.) 89 Stats App Download Instructions
3) Bring your graphing calculator to class.

08/23 Day 4) Review segmented bar charts to determine independence/association of two categorical variables, evaluate the Investigative Task, explore Simpson's Paradox, and review for quiz next class.
Assignment 4:
1) Read you book chapters 1-3.
2) Review the Think, Show, Tell format in the Step-By-Step Example pg. 31-32.
3) Do pg. 37-43 / problems 15, 16, 22, 36, 39.
4) Answer the following question: Two companies classify their employees as either labor or management. Company A's laborers have a higher average salary than company B's, as do company A's managers. But overall company B pays a higher average salary. How can that be? And which is the better way to compare earning potential at the two companies.
5) Study for Monday's quiz on Chapters 1-3.
A) study your class notes and vocabulary B) review your assignments
FYI: Check out the area principal in the 2012 election results.

08/21-22 B_Day 3) Displaying and Describing Categorical Data, Take a trip on the Titanic. Contingency and Conditional Distribution, Independence.
Assignment 3:
1) Read Ch. 1-3 of your book in preparation for next Monday’s quiz.
2) Finish the class notes (including the problem on the bottom of page 2)
3) Assignment 3 handout (Smoking and Education) (see Ch. 3 example problems for hints)
4) If needed finish the Investigative Task - People killed by police (graded separately)
hint: Use the concepts discussed in the Titanic Investigation.
On separate paper, about two paragraphs and a graph, no more than one page. For example 1st paragraph discuss the "W's". 2nd paragraph discuss what data you used and how you used it to make your conclusion.

FYI:
also Diversity in Tech

08/20 Day 2) Get a taste of statistics being utilized in a real world setting. Discuss AP Test expectations. Learn to describe data in its context. Investigate types of variables. Get books.
Assignment 2:
1) Bring your calculator to class tomorrow. Let me know if you don't have one.
2) Complete the problems on the class handout.
3) Read Ch.1 and Ch.2.
FYI: Target Pregnancy Predictions article
Predictive Analytics overview, interview with Eric Siegel
Database Administrator Career Option

08/19 Day  1) Why AP Statistics? What to expect from the course and Mr. Iams.
Assignment 1:
1)
Complete the questions on the class handout. Click Course Information at the left for the Green Sheet. Here is the link for the Official AP Statistics Course Description (2.4MB PDF file).

 

 

 

AP Statistics Assignments